Learning to Surf
PLUS: It turns out the death of physical book stores is greatly exaggerated, more rules for radicals, and let's get ready to rumble!
Learning to Surf
Shift Happens
Nearly six years ago, in my first book, I mapped the forces reshaping retail: the shift from siloed to cross-channel experiences, from going online to living online, from brand control to consumer empowerment, etc.
I argued most organizations weren’t moving fast enough.
I warned disruption would accelerate in ways both predictable and blindsiding.
I was right. And it’s only gotten wilder ever since.
Waves of Disruption
Since Remarkable Retail was released, the landscape has been hit by wave after wave.
Temu and Shein went from footnotes to tens of billions in revenue.
The pandemic torched global supply chains and turbo-charged everything digital.
Social and creator commerce exploded. TikTok Shops arrived on the scene.
Generative AI began rewiring how work gets done across the entire retail value chain.
Retail media networks quietly became serious profit contributors.
And agentic commerce — still early — threatens to completely reset search, discovery, and the customer relationship itself.
And we’re not done. Not even close.
“The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.”
- William Gibson
My Name is VUCA
VUCA — Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity — started as a U.S. Army framework for the post-Cold War world.
It’s now the most honest description of what the context for formulating retail strategy actually feels like.
Each letter in the acronym hits differently.
Volatility is the speed of change. Uncertainty is how little you can predict. Complexity is how tangled cause and effect have become. Ambiguity is when the signals are too murky to even frame the problem clearly.
The instinctive response — more planning, more forecasting, more optimization — is understandable. And often useless.
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
- Mike Tyson
Here’s the reframe: each letter also points to a required action.
Volatility demands a more compelling vision
Uncertainty demands deeper understanding — of customers, competitors, technology, and macro-economic forces
Complexity demands ruthless clarity in strategy and execution
Ambiguity demands an agile business model that can adapt as the ground shifts.
Learning to Surf
“You can’t stop the waves, but you can learn to surf.”
- Jon Kabat-Zinn
The waves of disruption aren’t coming—they’re already here. And the next set is forming behind them, coming at us faster and higher.
Most leaders spend their energy bracing for impact. That's the wrong game entirely.
We must stop hoping that things will stabilize, accept that change is constant, and develop the courage and agility to ride whatever wave comes next.
If you’re going to avoid wiping out versus reading the break, you must learn to surf.
You’re not powerless against the waves.
You choose which oceans you swim in. You choose your board. You choose when to paddle out.
Most importantly, you choose how relentlessly you work at getting better at surfing the inevitable waves.
RULES FOR (RETAIL) RADICALS
#3: Open the Aperture
“Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.”
- Andre Gide
Tape that to your monitor.
Read it before every strategy meeting.
In my experience, the single greatest innovation killer isn’t bad ideas. It isn’t lack of capital. It isn’t even the much-maligned “culture problem,” though that’s real enough.
It’s the desperate, white-knuckled grip on the shore.
Most organizations say they want to innovate. They put it in the annual report. They hire a Chief Innovation Officer, stand up a skunkworks lab, send a delegation to NRF or SXSW. They come home. They do almost nothing — or worse, they do the smallest, safest version of something and call it transformation.
The problem isn’t intelligence or intention. It’s a failure of imagination; an unwillingness to reframe the playing field entirely.
Leaders are scanning for threats within their existing field of vision — optimizing what they already have — while the real disruption forms just outside the frame.
Opening the aperture means something specific. It means widening your field of vision deliberately — across categories, industries, and customer behaviors that don’t yet show up cleanly in your data. Asking not “how do we do this better?” but “what if the whole model is wrong?”
That’s uncomfortable. And organizations are not wired for it. The quarterly cadence, the budget cycle, the org chart itself — all of it conspires to keep you anchored, optimizing the existing business while the world moves on.
You can’t find new lands by hugging the coastline. You find them by pointing the ship into open water and accepting that discomfort is the price of discovery.
So here’s the question worth sitting with:
What are you refusing to look at because it’s too far outside your current frame?
New lands are out there.
The only variable is whether you’re willing to sail far enough to find them.
ON THE REMARKABLE RETAIL PODCAST
On this week’s episode of the Remarkable Retail Podcast Barnes & Noble CEO James Daunt is our guest. And, as it turns out, reports of physical book stores’ death are greatly exaggerated.
Listen here or watch on our YouTube channel.
WHERE IN THE WORLD IS STEVE?
Next week is the 10th anniversary edition of Shoptalk in Las Vegas and I’ll be on stage twice, in addition to recording episodes of the pod.
First up is my conversation with Bret Taylor, former Salesforce co-CEO, current OpenAI Board Chair, and the founder and CEO of agentic commerce start-up Sierra, We’ll be sorting agentic reality from the hype. It’s at noon on Tuesday March 24.
Later that day I’ll be participating in the debut version of “The Retail Rumble” where four fast-paced debates on the most pressing topics facing retail will be held. If you’re ar the show this is a can’t miss event!
IF MY WORK RESONATES . . .
…and you want to take our relationship to the next level, here are 3 ideas:
BOOK AN ADVISORY VIDEO CALL. I’m now live on Intro.co for 1:1 concise and high impact advisory calls. Secure time here.
BRING ME TO YOUR NEXT EVENT TO SPEAK. I’ve delivered inspiring keynotes at industry conferences on six continents and been a featured speaker at dozens of corporate events, customer dinners, book signings, and more. Reach out to events@sageberryconsulting.com for all the details.
BUY REMARKABLE RETAIL: How to Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption. For a limited time it’s more than 50% off on Amazon.
